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Ext. PublicationHealth Care Valuation Trends Shaping 2026 | Podcast
What drives change in the health care M&A market, and how do regulations, incentives and market forces shape business value? In this episode of Weaver: Beyond the Numbers, Peter Langley sits down with Connor Campbell for a practical, timely conversation about regulatory, operational and financial dynamics influencing health care valuation.
Key Points:
- Strict federal and state regulations, especially Stark Law and the Anti-Kickback Statute, make health care valuation highly compliance-driven.
- Private equity continues to drive consolidation in high-volume physician specialties through roll-ups, even amid shifting interest rates.
- AI-tools and pharmaceutical trends, including GLP-1 drugs, are reshaping operations, reimbursement and valuation assumptions.
This episode unpacks why health care valuation demands deeper regulatory fluency than general valuation work. As Connor explains, “It’s health care first, valuation theory second,” because Stark Law, the Anti‑Kickback Statute and state‑level regulations dictate what can and cannot be considered in a valuation. Understanding these rules is essential to avoid linking value to patient referrals and to ensure transactions remain compliant.
The discussion also highlights current drivers in health care mergers and acquisitions. Deal activity declined sharply as interest rates rose in 2022 and has been slow to rebound, but private equity-backed roll-up strategies continue to fuel consolidation, especially in high-volume procedural specialties such as gastroenterology, cardiology, orthopedics and ophthalmology. Physicians are increasingly interested in rolled equity, allowing them to retain ownership and participate in future upside post-transaction. Aligning physicians and investors incentives has become central to executing durable deals amid an evolving, highly regulated environment.
Post-deal integration is equally critical. Ensuring physician alignment through compensation plans, employment agreements and equity structures can determine whether a transaction delivers its expected value. At the same time, health care operators face rising costs, reimbursement pressure, political uncertainty and ongoing regulatory scrutiny. As Connor notes, “We’re in a highly volatile period within the industry,” and the next 12-18 months will require adaptability and forwarding-looking planning to remain competitive. Organizations that anticipate regulatory shifts and align incentives effectively will be best positioned to navigate volatility and capture emerging opportunities.
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